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Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic
Arbelaez Gaviria, Juliana ; Boere, E. ; Havlík, P. ; Trnka, Miroslav
In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impacts\nof biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.
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